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PHEVs emit almost five times more global warming emissions than official data indicate, according to a new report.

Growing Gap Between Lab and Real-World Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs emit just one-fifth lower CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on analysis carried out by a non-profit group. This contrasts significantly with lab estimates, which assumed a 75% reduction in pollution.

Analysts examined information from onboard fuel consumption meters of 800,000 cars sold in Europe from 2021 and 2023. They found that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than lab figures, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are rising, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a lead analyst involved in the report. “That discrepancy is widening and poses a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as much as petrol cars.”

Key Factors Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed most of the gap to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of kilometers driven in battery mode compared to overall mileage. The team determined that just 27% of driving was completed in electric mode, while lab estimates suggested 84%.

Even, when running in EV mode, pollution levels were well above lab projections. This happened because electric motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate independently, resulting to combustion motors burning gasoline for almost one-third of the travel completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Implications

According to calculations, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled four major automaker companies to avoid more than €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs could pay about €500 more per year in operating expenses than would be estimated under laboratory conditions.

“The bold statements that manufacturers like to make about their PHEV cars are obviously far from the truth,” stated a transport analyst. “Buyers are being misled into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are helping the planet and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly better than regular petrol and diesel vehicles in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running expenses.”

Political Debate and Automotive Lobbying

Plug-in hybrid cars have recently been drawn back into political discussions as automakers have pressed the European Union to relax CO₂ standards. A proposed prohibition on sales of new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the car sector and opposition from EU countries with large car industries.

Several senior politicians have proposed PHEVs as a potential “flexibility” solution to include in the regulation.

An independent energy policy expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, described the analysis a “highly valuable contribution” after a long period in which parts of the car industry claimed there was insufficient data to properly assess actual emissions.

“The results demonstrate, beyond any doubt, that the gap between official and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is significantly larger than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” they stated. “All policy changes regarding PHEVs should be implemented with extreme caution and in the light of this data.”